New article of Volodymyr Dubovyk "The Implications of the Crimean Annexation for Black Sea Security" is available at the PONARS Eurasia web site.

V. Dubovyk argues that the Ukraine crisis altered the security landscape of the Black Sea region. This area was a relatively quiet “battlefront” during the Cold War and a rather stable region in the post-Soviet period, even with its “frozen conflicts” and the occasional flare-up of conflict, most notably the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. This has all changed with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its continuous intervention in Ukraine’s east. Russia’s intervention in Crimea and the Donbas has shown that the use of force still matters, especially when it promises to achieve results more quickly and effectively than diplomacy. This lesson has reverberated across the Black Sea region. Together with the souring of Russian-Turkish relations over the conflict in Syria, the turbulence created by Russia’s actions is leading to a noticeably different strategic environment.

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